A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
